Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency caused by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for resolving the conflict appeared – temporarily – to have been contained. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its response: another massive barrage of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Peace Talks and Military Action
The sequence of opposing developments captured the grim essence of the outgoing year. By day, diplomatic battles are conducted: positive announcements are released from multiple capitals. Immense energy is devoted on managing particular approaches. By night, Moscow forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the main instrument for achieving "settlement".
After-Dark Attacks
As Russia's attack progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's vulnerability was exposed. Ukraine is capable of detecting missile launches from enemy soil, a ability provided through timely intelligence. From vantage locations, defense planes that had been deployed to counter approaching guided weapons roared overhead – modern combat jets provided to Ukraine by NATO members.
Shortly after, Kyiv's air-defence systems thundered: multiple launches targeted at a Russian ballistic missile. This was a modern interception technology at work, presumably supplied through allied countries. Every firing creates sudden vibrations, rattling buildings. The instant of fear quickly transforms into resigned acknowledgment: possibly the incoming missile won't strike its target this time, sparing the city from devastation and additional electricity failures.
Persistent Threats
Following this, a automatic firearm fired at a aerial vehicle close by, part of a mobile-fire group – probably Western-made equipment. Sadly, the bullets missed the opposing UAV – it pressed on overhead toward its objective.
With pauses, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv faced the morning news: several casualties, destruction and heating outages in numerous residences as a result of the evening attack. As always, everyone still continued their routines – enduring hostilities. But those entire period illustrated Ukraine's vital need on international aid – a need that European nations are clearly incapable to substitute in the near term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The 28-point plan from US administration generated strong feelings, controversy and serious worry – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after prior negotiation attempts and bilateral conferences.
Every new approach from American administration unfolds according to the identical sequence: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, manages to fend off. They stabilise the situation but never actually achieve victory. This pattern will, certainly, continue.
Tactical Assessments
It is tempting to accuse particular leaders of consistently pushing Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. US administration works based on a premise familiar among experienced diplomats: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have failed to defend militarily. The American government presumes that it is unrealistic to force Russia to surrender the territory that it already controls in Ukraine's south or east.
The problem is that while accepting these circumstances, Washington does nothing to deter Moscow, through diplomacy or military means, from assuming that the current condition will not change more in its favour in the near future.
Divergent Views
Therefore, the Kremlin is convinced that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its partners are nearing depletion. Their reason to sign a deal that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is almost completely absent. There may be numerous efforts to stop fighting, but they will continue as long as Russia's leadership remains supremely confident in the outcome.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still hold out, progressively conceding lives and land but avoiding a complete military breakdown until conditions improve in its benefit.
Current Realities
Realistically, there are no actual prerequisites for a ceasefire. Now, individual motivations are coming into play: personal goals to negotiate peace and secure international recognition, and Kyiv's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the flag against any initiative Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their focus does not move to homefront challenges. And although their mission will now be much harder after latest incidents, it remains quite doubtful that this will modify their basic position.
These conflicting dynamics are influencing discussions.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a only one week to terminate the proposed articles of the current initiative. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by American leadership, resistance by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with pacifying measures of diplomats, and finally, current information leaks, all achieved their purpose.
While new initiatives based on old ideas are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist negotiation assaults from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and reflect certain reluctance to modify developments, if they stand together and strengthen their defence capabilities at a much faster pace. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the predictable period, mainly require ongoing international assistance.
