A decade after the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that polarised the nation and unleashed turmoil, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially contentious and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The team have analysed the political, economic and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is imminent, and a group named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unity has masked the lack of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in academia but hardly any elected officials or activists want to engage with the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unity or the status quo. Each authors two articles that seek neutrality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling economic and societal figures, previous instances and constitutional models.
Debates cover flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and stimulate discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," commented the writer. "Dialogue implies an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate report they prefer unity but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government must determine what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist considers a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid arguments, he commented. "One side will win here and somebody will eventually be defeated but both parties has has important lessons to learn from the alternative arguments."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should engage with the discussion, said O’Toole. "This is about your state. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."
